wild prediction

[Rob Hartill <ro...@imdb.com>]

off topic and a setuid free mail message..


Okay, Rob McCool's gone, so here's a wild prediction that he might
not have appreciated..

Within a year, Microsoft will be on at least an equal browser market
share as Netscape. Netscape's stock price will drop to something realistic
conisdering their ever-changing business plan, and one of the big boys
will gobble them up... maybe even Microsoft if the government allow it.

MS are currently running some excellent TV commercials that open more
minds to getting onto the net, and they'll have the MS name tied in with
the internet.

Netscape's downfall (should it occur) will be a result of a bloated
binary that consumes way too many scarce resources. Microsoft will
use changes to Windoze to their advantage.

An Apache prediction?, we'll get to about 40-45% of the 'market' share
and will stay there for next year or more. Netscape's server share will
fall as more NT people move to the MS server. I also have a feeling that
someone will embed Apache into a UNIX OS to improve efficiency.. one of
the intel based OSes no doubt. Paul, any sign of this kind of move in
the FreeBSD camp?

Oh, and the Pope will die within the year too.


rob

Re: wild prediction

[ra...@madhaus.utcs.utoronto.ca]

> MS are currently running some excellent TV commercials that open more
> minds to getting onto the net, and they'll have the MS name tied in with
> the internet.

They are also hiring lots of Unix-heads and porting MSIE to Unix.  I have
been pestered by calls in the past week from a Toronto placement
agency which does all the hiring for Microsoft Canada.  Telling them that
I know bugger-all about MS products and that I only do Unix has not
discouraged them the slightest.  They are either really really stupid, or
smarter than I thought.

> An Apache prediction?, we'll get to about 40-45% of the 'market' share
> and will stay there for next year or more. Netscape's server share will
> fall as more NT people move to the MS server. I also have a feeling that
> someone will embed Apache into a UNIX OS to improve efficiency.. one of
> the intel based OSes no doubt. Paul, any sign of this kind of move in
> the FreeBSD camp?

Won't happen in the Linux camp.  At least not for a very long time.  I don't
think anybody would be able to convince Linus that a web server is not 
something that belongs in user space.  And I tend to agree that it should
stay in user space.

-Rasmus

Re: wild prediction

[Brian Behlendorf <br...@organic.com>]

On Mon, 3 Jun 1996 rasmus@madhaus.utcs.utoronto.ca wrote:
> > I'd throw in OpenDoc, assuming Apple and co. can really get its act
> > together soon, as it claims it can. One advantage of OpenDoc is that
> > it can already use OLE peices, and within the year (so they claim)
> > it'll have Java built in too. Which takes care of 2/3 of your list.
> > And while I don't have the hardware (here at home) to try it, people
> > keep claiming Cyberdog (Apple's OpenDoc-based Internet architecture)
> > is "really cool".

Remember, technology alone is not going to designate the winner.  OpenDoc 
might be superior, it's certainly a bit more mature, even though the 
OD-based browser is just coming out.  However, I just don't see Apple 
having the ability to pull contenders in the industry together to "agree" 
on it - interoperability is one thing, but Sun's convincing Microsoft 
that building a really fast JIT compiler for MSIE 3.0 is something I 
don't think Apple has the comparable ability to do.  

> Then I'll counter with Corba.  

At the "Distributed Code and Persistance" session at javaOne, the head of the
"javaSpace" and java-to-java remote method invocation development efforts Jim
Waldo was asked his opinion of Corba.  He said something to the effect of "I
don't want to turn this into a Corba-bashing session, honest - I was involved
with Corba from the start, I set up I believe the first ORB, and I can say
I've watched corba evolve from a simple protocol into a very complicated
protocol that takes a lot of implementation effort, and it's sorta like
seeing your kid out on the street in fishnet and lingerie and thinking, damn,
he could have been somebody!" 

> There is already a free implementation (ILU)
> along with a Java ORB (Jylu).  And Orbix's commercial products are
> truly impressive.  Corba, OLE and OpenDoc should actually be able to
> get along and I am not convinced that we are going to have a clear winner
> here.  Everybody can keep doing their own thing and with a little glue
> the various brands of clients will all talk to the various brands of
> servers.

The thing is stable markets are not necessarily made of competing 
equivalent platforms.  Imagine if there was another protocol that did 
pretty much exactly what HTTP did, with the same amount of (in)stability 
and performance, with a free implementation - would HTTP have survived or 
would this other-protocol?  When the technology is very close, psychology 
comes into play, and whichever technology appears to have the slightest 
lead (like, one side has a group solidly supporting a public-domain 
server and extending it, etc) then the weight of the world would fall to 
the other.  However, when the technologies are distinctly different, they 
can coexist... if OpenDoc were to survive it'd have to distinguish itself 
from other technologies pretty strongly.  It's not a VM, it's not a 
remote procedure call technology, it's a compound document and linking 
technology (right? or are they biting off more these days?)

	Brian

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Re: wild prediction

[ra...@madhaus.utcs.utoronto.ca]

> I'd throw in OpenDoc, assuming Apple and co. can really get its act
> together soon, as it claims it can. One advantage of OpenDoc is that
> it can already use OLE peices, and within the year (so they claim)
> it'll have Java built in too. Which takes care of 2/3 of your list.
> And while I don't have the hardware (here at home) to try it, people
> keep claiming Cyberdog (Apple's OpenDoc-based Internet architecture)
> is "really cool".

Then I'll counter with Corba.  There is already a free implementation (ILU)
along with a Java ORB (Jylu).  And Orbix's commercial products are
truly impressive.  Corba, OLE and OpenDoc should actually be able to
get along and I am not convinced that we are going to have a clear winner
here.  Everybody can keep doing their own thing and with a little glue
the various brands of clients will all talk to the various brands of
servers.

-Rasmus

Re: wild prediction

[Alexei Kosut <ak...@nueva.pvt.k12.ca.us>]

On Sun, 2 Jun 1996, Brian Behlendorf wrote:

> On Sun, 2 Jun 1996, Rob Hartill wrote:
> > off topic and a setuid free mail message..
> 
> Oh, I really shouldn't be doing this.

But it's fun... right?

[snip]

> are so different that existing operating systems will have to change at a 
> very deep level to truely live up to the new rules.  The three contenders 
> for this new "platform" (which could sit on existing operating systems, 
> or even by itself) are:
> 
> Microsoft's ActiveX/OLE/COM/whatever
> JavaVM/JavaOS
> Whatever framework Netscape decides to push (LiveConnect?)

I'd throw in OpenDoc, assuming Apple and co. can really get its act
together soon, as it claims it can. One advantage of OpenDoc is that
it can already use OLE peices, and within the year (so they claim)
it'll have Java built in too. Which takes care of 2/3 of your list.
And while I don't have the hardware (here at home) to try it, people
keep claiming Cyberdog (Apple's OpenDoc-based Internet architecture)
is "really cool".

I might mention that (at least from what I've read - I wasn't there)
at Apple's recent World-Wide Development Conference, they were able to
demostrate both Java applets and Netscape plugins running as OpenDoc
parts directly. And Netscape supposedly committed itself to making a
version of Navigator that used OpenDoc.

-- 
________________________________________________________________________
Alexei Kosut <ak...@nueva.pvt.k12.ca.us>      The Apache HTTP Server
URL: http://www.nueva.pvt.k12.ca.us/~akosut/   http://www.apache.org/
 
      "War does not determine who is right, only who is left."

Re: wild prediction

[Brian Behlendorf <br...@organic.com>]

On Sun, 2 Jun 1996, Rob Hartill wrote:
> off topic and a setuid free mail message..

Oh, I really shouldn't be doing this.

> Okay, Rob McCool's gone, so here's a wild prediction that he might
> not have appreciated..

The archives are readable remember :)

> Within a year, Microsoft will be on at least an equal browser market
> share as Netscape. Netscape's stock price will drop to something realistic
> conisdering their ever-changing business plan, and one of the big boys
> will gobble them up... maybe even Microsoft if the government allow it.

I'd doubt they'd ever allow it.  I could see Netscape and SGI merging 
though, what with SGI coming to realize it's really a software company 
if it weren't for its very lucrative high-end number crunchers (a la 
their purchase of Cray).  SGI is really the only very large software 
company not hitching their future to a new platform.  Look for Apple to 
be a part of this too, and maybe Be.  But yes, consolidation of some form 
will definitely happen.

> MS are currently running some excellent TV commercials that open more
> minds to getting onto the net, and they'll have the MS name tied in with
> the internet.

Yes to the first part, but the second part is still a very large uphill 
battle.

> Netscape's downfall (should it occur) will be a result of a bloated
> binary that consumes way too many scarce resources. Microsoft will
> use changes to Windoze to their advantage.

Except Windows is an overbloated binary as well!  

What this stage (late '96, 97, early 98) will all be about is how the 
browser becomes integrated with the desktop/OS (integrated, not just 
bundled), and how the desktop/OS becomes integrated with the internet.  
This is brand new territory, a place with new rules that weren't for one 
reason or another significant before, like security.  I believe the rules 
are so different that existing operating systems will have to change at a 
very deep level to truely live up to the new rules.  The three contenders 
for this new "platform" (which could sit on existing operating systems, 
or even by itself) are:

Microsoft's ActiveX/OLE/COM/whatever
JavaVM/JavaOS
Whatever framework Netscape decides to push (LiveConnect?)

In my view, the winner will be Java.  The reason is not technology alone 
- though in my view the technology is superior - but because JavaSoft is 
making *all*the*right*moves* in getting Java ubiquitous, and an 
environment that can provide solutions for 95% of the world's needs.  
They are forging consensuses with peers in the industry (include MS) - 
they are designing the frameworks within commercial entities can plug in 
interoperable functionality - and even though MS will push using ActiveX 
through Java, I think enough people are going to ask "Why?" that I don't 
see it as a major threat.  I know the dangers inherent in promising a 
technology which could be all things to all people - I also know that no 
one ever got fired for recommending Microsoft.  Given all those things, I 
think Java has a strong chance of really being the solution.  I feel much 
more strongly about this now than I did a week ago, even though nothing 
has changed about my awareness of the technology.  

Go check out http://java.sun.com/ and decide for yourself.  The only 
other bias I'll admit to is that this is the solution I *want* to see, 
despite owning zero shares of Sun stock :)

> An Apache prediction?, we'll get to about 40-45% of the 'market' share
> and will stay there for next year or more. 

I think it could go even higher....

> Netscape's server share will
> fall as more NT people move to the MS server. 

Or ApacheNT. :)

> I also have a feeling that
> someone will embed Apache into a UNIX OS to improve efficiency.. one of
> the intel based OSes no doubt. Paul, any sign of this kind of move in
> the FreeBSD camp?

Embedding, as compared to bundling - hmm, interesting.  I could see 
someone doing something like that and selling a hardware/software combo 
claiming to get 3Mhits/day on a pentium 150 or something...

> Oh, and the Pope will die within the year too.

Well, here in SF we're more concerned about Herb Caen's health these days 
(he just found out he has inoperable lung cancer).  It will be a sad day 
(week?) in SF when he passes.  

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