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Posted to notifications@superset.apache.org by GitBox <gi...@apache.org> on 2022/10/07 10:56:40 UTC

[GitHub] [superset] Dapid opened a new issue, #21734: Uncertainty intervals of forecast are wrong when it goes negative.

Dapid opened a new issue, #21734:
URL: https://github.com/apache/superset/issues/21734

Uncertainty intervals of forecast never goes negative.

#### How to reproduce the bug

1 Take any data that includes negative values.
2 Run a forecast, including uncertainty interval

### Expected results

I'd expect the uncertainty to be around the forecast.

### Actual results

The uncertainty interval is clipped from below at 0, and behaves oddly.

#### Screenshots
![Screenshot 2022-10-07 at 12-48-06 forecast](https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/1616942/194536526-10d5eb13-e0f6-4e98-bb30-4c8088ba2a17.png)

### Environment

(please complete the following information):

- browser type and version: Firefox 105.0.2
- superset version: 2.0.0
- python version: 3.8.14
- prophet version: 1.1.1
- any feature flags active: run as per the tutorial

### Checklist

Make sure to follow these steps before submitting your issue - thank you!

- [x] I have checked the superset logs for python stacktraces and included it here as text if there are any.
- [x] I have reproduced the issue with at least the latest released version of superset.
- [x] I have checked the issue tracker for the same issue and I haven't found one similar.

### Additional context

[Here](https://gist.github.com/Dapid/49a71bcd96c085bdd5081517d090c86a) is some data one can use. I used Date as the X axis and min(temperature) for Y (days, weeks, or months, work fine).
Note that using max(temperature) instead yields nice-looking results, since almost all of it is positive.

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[GitHub] [superset] ShaliniIruvuru commented on issue #21734: Uncertainty intervals of forecast are wrong when it goes negative.

Posted by "ShaliniIruvuru (via GitHub)" <gi...@apache.org>.

ShaliniIruvuru commented on issue #21734:
URL: https://github.com/apache/superset/issues/21734#issuecomment-1527029493

   
   Hi it will be very help for us to resolve this issue if you provide detailed information,
   
   


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Re: [I] Uncertainty intervals of forecast are wrong when it goes negative. [superset]

Posted by "Dapid (via GitHub)" <gi...@apache.org>.

Dapid commented on issue #21734:
URL: https://github.com/apache/superset/issues/21734#issuecomment-1965520445

   The problem is still here in 3.1. You need any data with negative values.
   
   For example, creating a line chart based on this query, and adding a forecast works as expected:
   ```
   SELECT DATETIME(year, 'start of day') AS year,
          MIN(SP_POP_AG14_MA_IN) AS "MIN(SP_POP_AG14_MA_IN)"
   FROM main.wb_health_population
   GROUP BY DATETIME(year, 'start of day')
   ORDER BY "MIN(SP_POP_AG14_MA_IN)" DESC
   LIMIT 10000
   OFFSET 0;
   ```
   
   ![image](https://github.com/apache/superset/assets/1616942/1046de54-b753-4c9d-8456-cb3e179f221e)
   
   Changing the sign of the value yields instead:
   
   ![image](https://github.com/apache/superset/assets/1616942/d26605af-62be-4f3b-b57a-0cc44aa73c59)
   
   And in fact, plotting MIN(SP_POP_AG14_MA_IN) - 170 works fine:
   
   ![image](https://github.com/apache/superset/assets/1616942/c97c0310-aff2-4e5f-966c-a3ea09c97de3)
   
   
   But plotting MIN(SP_POP_AG14_MA_IN) - 172 is odd again, even though there aren't any negative values.
   
   ![image](https://github.com/apache/superset/assets/1616942/40b6d047-813f-4d9d-898d-6e0e8fa37477)
   
   
   


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Re: [I] Uncertainty intervals of forecast are wrong when it goes negative. [superset]

Posted by "rusackas (via GitHub)" <gi...@apache.org>.

rusackas commented on issue #21734:
URL: https://github.com/apache/superset/issues/21734#issuecomment-1965480270

   I'm not sure if this is still an issue in current versions of Superset (3.x). If it is, we can re-open this, or feel free to open a new issue with updated context and a reproducible case using example data. We're no longer supporting Superset 2.x or prior, and it's been a while since this thread saw any activity, so I'm closing this as stale.
   


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Re: [I] Uncertainty intervals of forecast are wrong when it goes negative. [superset]

Posted by "rusackas (via GitHub)" <gi...@apache.org>.

rusackas closed issue #21734: Uncertainty intervals of forecast are wrong when it goes negative.
URL: https://github.com/apache/superset/issues/21734


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Re: [I] Uncertainty intervals of forecast are wrong when it goes negative. [superset]

Posted by "rusackas (via GitHub)" <gi...@apache.org>.

rusackas commented on issue #21734:
URL: https://github.com/apache/superset/issues/21734#issuecomment-1965527041

   Ahh, thanks for the context! Re-opening!


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