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Posted to general@incubator.apache.org by Justin Mclean <ju...@classsoftware.com> on 2019/11/15 02:02:36 UTC
Some interesting incubator stats
Hi,
Here’s some interesting incubator stats:
- Of the 315 projects that have gone through the incubator 205 have graduated, 61 have retired and 49 are currently undergoing graduation.
- That means that overall 77% of projects graduate. The ones that do not do so for a wide variety of reasons and may still exist elsewhere.
- The average time in incubation is 1.9 years
- The average time to graduate is 1.6 years
- The average time seems to be getting a little shorter. It's 1.6 years for 2015 and 1.2 years for 2016 (although this will increase as more projects from those years graduate)
- The shortest time to graduate was 58 days (way back in 2003)
- 66 projects have graduated (and another 12 retiring) in under a year
- Of the podlings that joined in 2019 so far none have graduated or retired yet
- Of the podlings that joined in 2018 1 has graduated and 1 has retired
- Of the podlings that have joined in 2017 4 have graduated and 1 has retired
- Of the podlings that joined in 2016 15 have graduated and 6 have retired
- Of the podlings that joined in 2015 20 have graduated and 5 have retired.
- The oldest project yet to graduate is from 2013 (but that will soon be 2014)
- Over the life time of the incubator there has been 1044 podling mentors[1]
- Some people mentor many projects so that’s 339 different people[1]
- One person has mentored 29 projects
- 20 people have mentored 10 or more projects [1]
- One person has been the champion for more than 10 projects
I find it amazing that the incubator have been involved with more than 300 communities and involved so many mentors.
Thanks,
Justin
1. Probably more as mentors have changed over time.
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Re: Some interesting incubator stats
Posted by 俊平堵 <ju...@apache.org>.
Great job, Justin! We need more insights like this to see how our podlings
going.
Thanks,
Junping
Justin Mclean <ju...@classsoftware.com> 于2019年11月15日周五 上午10:02写道：
> Hi,
>
> Here’s some interesting incubator stats:
> - Of the 315 projects that have gone through the incubator 205 have
> graduated, 61 have retired and 49 are currently undergoing graduation.
> - That means that overall 77% of projects graduate. The ones that do not
> do so for a wide variety of reasons and may still exist elsewhere.
> - The average time in incubation is 1.9 years
> - The average time to graduate is 1.6 years
> - The average time seems to be getting a little shorter. It's 1.6 years
> for 2015 and 1.2 years for 2016 (although this will increase as more
> projects from those years graduate)
> - The shortest time to graduate was 58 days (way back in 2003)
> - 66 projects have graduated (and another 12 retiring) in under a year
> - Of the podlings that joined in 2019 so far none have graduated or
> retired yet
> - Of the podlings that joined in 2018 1 has graduated and 1 has retired
> - Of the podlings that have joined in 2017 4 have graduated and 1 has
> retired
> - Of the podlings that joined in 2016 15 have graduated and 6 have retired
> - Of the podlings that joined in 2015 20 have graduated and 5 have retired.
> - The oldest project yet to graduate is from 2013 (but that will soon be
> 2014)
> - Over the life time of the incubator there has been 1044 podling
> mentors[1]
> - Some people mentor many projects so that’s 339 different people[1]
> - One person has mentored 29 projects
> - 20 people have mentored 10 or more projects [1]
> - One person has been the champion for more than 10 projects
>
> I find it amazing that the incubator have been involved with more than 300
> communities and involved so many mentors.
>
> Thanks,
> Justin
>
> 1. Probably more as mentors have changed over time.
>
>
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Re: Some interesting incubator stats
Posted by Justin Mclean <ju...@classsoftware.com>.
HI,
> Please provide both median and mean values. I looked at Chinese podlings for my talk at COSCon 2019. The median was less than the mean due to the pull from projects taking a long time.
The median would be less than the mean as you note. The median is 1.4 years to gradate and 1.3 years to exit.
> These are important numbers. Are you computing this completely from podlings.xml?
Yes that's where in information come from, but I needed to alter the data format before I come up with these numbers. Not hat it couldn’t be calculated from the XML it would just take a bit more programming effort.
> We could put this together with clutch analysis or the podling chart on projects.a.o.
We do have a chart showing podling extra/exit over time about somewhere.
Thanks,
Justin
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Re: Some interesting incubator stats
Posted by Dave Fisher <wa...@comcast.net>.
Hi Justin,
This is great information. Thanks!
Please provide both median and mean values. I looked at Chinese podlings for my talk at COSCon 2019. The median was less than the mean due to the pull from projects taking a long time.
Your numbers do look similar.
These are important numbers. Are you computing this completely from podlings.xml?
We could put this together with clutch analysis or the podling chart on projects.a.o.
Regards,
Dave
Sent from my iPhone
> On Nov 14, 2019, at 6:02 PM, Justin Mclean <ju...@classsoftware.com> wrote:
>
> Hi,
>
> Here’s some interesting incubator stats:
> - Of the 315 projects that have gone through the incubator 205 have graduated, 61 have retired and 49 are currently undergoing graduation.
> - That means that overall 77% of projects graduate. The ones that do not do so for a wide variety of reasons and may still exist elsewhere.
> - The average time in incubation is 1.9 years
> - The average time to graduate is 1.6 years
> - The average time seems to be getting a little shorter. It's 1.6 years for 2015 and 1.2 years for 2016 (although this will increase as more projects from those years graduate)
> - The shortest time to graduate was 58 days (way back in 2003)
> - 66 projects have graduated (and another 12 retiring) in under a year
> - Of the podlings that joined in 2019 so far none have graduated or retired yet
> - Of the podlings that joined in 2018 1 has graduated and 1 has retired
> - Of the podlings that have joined in 2017 4 have graduated and 1 has retired
> - Of the podlings that joined in 2016 15 have graduated and 6 have retired
> - Of the podlings that joined in 2015 20 have graduated and 5 have retired.
> - The oldest project yet to graduate is from 2013 (but that will soon be 2014)
> - Over the life time of the incubator there has been 1044 podling mentors[1]
> - Some people mentor many projects so that’s 339 different people[1]
> - One person has mentored 29 projects
> - 20 people have mentored 10 or more projects [1]
> - One person has been the champion for more than 10 projects
>
> I find it amazing that the incubator have been involved with more than 300 communities and involved so many mentors.
>
> Thanks,
> Justin
>
> 1. Probably more as mentors have changed over time.
>
>
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Re: Some interesting incubator stats
Posted by Justin Mclean <ju...@classsoftware.com>.
HI,
> - Of the <X> podlings that joined in 2017 4 have graduated and 1 has retired
Will do.
BTW you can generate that via the command line easily enough:
$ grep "status=" podlings.xml | grep 'startdate="2017' | wc
15 95 1725
$ grep "status=\"retir" podlings.xml | grep 'startdate="2017' | wc
1 7 133
$ grep "status=\"grad" podlings.xml | grep 'startdate="2017' | wc
4 28 532
$ grep "status=\"curr" podlings.xml | grep 'startdate="2017' | wc
10 60 1060
So of the 15 who joined 4 have graduated and 1 has retired.
Thanks,
Justin
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Re: Some interesting incubator stats
Posted by David Jencks <da...@gmail.com>.
Nice to see, thanks!
If you automate this or do it again I’d like to see e.g. …
- Of the <X> podlings that joined in 2017 4 have graduated and 1 has retired
Thanks again
David Jencks
> On Nov 14, 2019, at 6:02 PM, Justin Mclean <ju...@classsoftware.com> wrote:
>
> Hi,
>
> Here’s some interesting incubator stats:
> - Of the 315 projects that have gone through the incubator 205 have graduated, 61 have retired and 49 are currently undergoing graduation.
> - That means that overall 77% of projects graduate. The ones that do not do so for a wide variety of reasons and may still exist elsewhere.
> - The average time in incubation is 1.9 years
> - The average time to graduate is 1.6 years
> - The average time seems to be getting a little shorter. It's 1.6 years for 2015 and 1.2 years for 2016 (although this will increase as more projects from those years graduate)
> - The shortest time to graduate was 58 days (way back in 2003)
> - 66 projects have graduated (and another 12 retiring) in under a year
> - Of the podlings that joined in 2019 so far none have graduated or retired yet
> - Of the podlings that joined in 2018 1 has graduated and 1 has retired
> - Of the podlings that have joined in 2017 4 have graduated and 1 has retired
> - Of the podlings that joined in 2016 15 have graduated and 6 have retired
> - Of the podlings that joined in 2015 20 have graduated and 5 have retired.
> - The oldest project yet to graduate is from 2013 (but that will soon be 2014)
> - Over the life time of the incubator there has been 1044 podling mentors[1]
> - Some people mentor many projects so that’s 339 different people[1]
> - One person has mentored 29 projects
> - 20 people have mentored 10 or more projects [1]
> - One person has been the champion for more than 10 projects
>
> I find it amazing that the incubator have been involved with more than 300 communities and involved so many mentors.
>
> Thanks,
> Justin
>
> 1. Probably more as mentors have changed over time.
>
>
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Re: Some interesting incubator stats
Posted by Sheng Wu <wu...@gmail.com>.
Interesting stats. Thanks for sharing this.
Sheng Wu 吴晟
Apache SkyWalking
Apache Incubator
Apache ShardingSphere, ECharts, DolphinScheduler podlings
Zipkin
Twitter, wusheng1108
Justin Mclean <ju...@classsoftware.com> 于2019年11月15日周五 上午10:02写道：
> Hi,
>
> Here’s some interesting incubator stats:
> - Of the 315 projects that have gone through the incubator 205 have
> graduated, 61 have retired and 49 are currently undergoing graduation.
> - That means that overall 77% of projects graduate. The ones that do not
> do so for a wide variety of reasons and may still exist elsewhere.
> - The average time in incubation is 1.9 years
> - The average time to graduate is 1.6 years
> - The average time seems to be getting a little shorter. It's 1.6 years
> for 2015 and 1.2 years for 2016 (although this will increase as more
> projects from those years graduate)
> - The shortest time to graduate was 58 days (way back in 2003)
> - 66 projects have graduated (and another 12 retiring) in under a year
> - Of the podlings that joined in 2019 so far none have graduated or
> retired yet
> - Of the podlings that joined in 2018 1 has graduated and 1 has retired
> - Of the podlings that have joined in 2017 4 have graduated and 1 has
> retired
> - Of the podlings that joined in 2016 15 have graduated and 6 have retired
> - Of the podlings that joined in 2015 20 have graduated and 5 have retired.
> - The oldest project yet to graduate is from 2013 (but that will soon be
> 2014)
> - Over the life time of the incubator there has been 1044 podling
> mentors[1]
> - Some people mentor many projects so that’s 339 different people[1]
> - One person has mentored 29 projects
> - 20 people have mentored 10 or more projects [1]
> - One person has been the champion for more than 10 projects
>
> I find it amazing that the incubator have been involved with more than 300
> communities and involved so many mentors.
>
> Thanks,
> Justin
>
> 1. Probably more as mentors have changed over time.
>
>
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>
Re: Some interesting incubator stats
Posted by Justin Mclean <ju...@classsoftware.com>.
Hi,
A little graph of podlings over time:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dC1XP-xqgJP9bRRqAalgHO2Vi5iDkkIG/view?usp=sharing
Download the file and open in a browser. If someone who actually knows how to use Apache ECcharts and javascript wants to play with this go ahead.
Thanks,
Justin
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Re: Some interesting incubator stats
Posted by Justin Mclean <ju...@classsoftware.com>.
Hi,
> 1) the number of podlings entering has dropped dramatically. Some of that
> drop is probably really good, but this drop is extreme. This could be
> github effect or could be that Apache is viewed as old fuddy-duddies. Can't
> tell from the data, but I bet everybody has an opinion, warranted or not.
Re the "this drop is extreme”, another way of looking at it is that 2015 and 2016 we accepted too many projects and are still trying to digest them :-) A trend line through all of the data is still increasing upwards over time.
But let's go with a decrease in the last couple of year. It’s hard to tell why from the data alone. I think this is from a number of factors:
- We have been “rejecting” more projects
- Other options for project exists that didn’t before and we don’t actively encourage projects to join us
- The Incubator mentor carrying capacity is near it’s limit, it was over it’s limit a few years ago
- We have issues around diversity and are less attractive place to some projects to be because of that
- Some difficultly with adopting to modern workflows
> 2) the mean and max times to incubate were goofy 10 years ago. We have no
> evidence that the maximum has gotten much better since we still have some
> very old podlings hanging around, but I feel like the median is a bit
> better.
One of the changes from about 10 years ago have a shift from projects sponsoring projects to the incubator sponsoring them.
> 3) the minimum time to incubate has definitely increased over the last 10
> years. That might be due to the presence of the direct-to-TLP process.
Graphing the numbers Im not seeing that at all and it’s mostly the same. Given very few project gave gone direct to TLP I wouldn’t expect this to have much of an impact.
Thanks,
Justin
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Re: Some interesting incubator stats
Posted by Ted Dunning <te...@gmail.com>.
Here is the same data in tabular form, courtesy of python and R.
startYear started finished min mean median max
<chr> <int> <int> <drtn> <drtn> <drtn> <drtn>
1 2003 14 14 58 days 653.4286 days 329.0 days 2419 days
2 2004 16 16 0 days 587.9375 days 341.5 days 2227 days
3 2005 18 18 0 days 528.2222 days 582.5 days 989 days
4 2006 20 20 129 days 620.8500 days 463.0 days 1485 days
5 2007 11 11 196 days 754.1818 days 647.0 days 2132 days
6 2008 19 19 281 days 1156.8421 days 1270.0 days 2579 days
7 2009 14 14 102 days 735.2857 days 545.5 days 1836 days
8 2010 22 22 282 days 842.5455 days 731.5 days 2599 days
9 2011 27 27 126 days 580.4815 days 436.0 days 2675 days
10 2012 14 14 154 days 715.6429 days 531.0 days 1794 days
11 2013 23 22 161 days 571.3182 days 448.5 days 1619 days
12 2014 19 16 233 days 629.9375 days 487.5 days 1508 days
13 2015 30 25 183 days 623.0400 days 584.0 days 1468 days
14 2016 30 23 303 days 713.6087 days 673.0 days 1348 days
15 2017 15 5 329 days 505.0000 days 485.0 days 741 days
16 2018 14 2 294 days 373.5000 days 373.5 days 453 days
17 2019 9 0 Inf days NaN days NA days -Inf days
I see a few prominent things:
1) the number of podlings entering has dropped dramatically. Some of that
drop is probably really good, but this drop is extreme. This could be
github effect or could be that Apache is viewed as old fuddy-duddies. Can't
tell from the data, but I bet everybody has an opinion, warranted or not.
2) the mean and max times to incubate were goofy 10 years ago. We have no
evidence that the maximum has gotten much better since we still have some
very old podlings hanging around, but I feel like the median is a bit
better.
3) the minimum time to incubate has definitely increased over the last 10
years. That might be due to the presence of the direct-to-TLP process.
On Thu, Nov 21, 2019 at 2:31 PM Justin Mclean <ju...@classsoftware.com>
wrote:
> Hi,
>
> Whimsey also provides that data as JSON [1], I put together a little
> python script to generate these stats:
>
> Total podlings: 315
> Total retired podlings: 61
> Total graduated podlings: 207
> Total current podlings: 47
>
> From 14 poddings that joined in 2003 10 graduated, 4 retired and 0 are
> incubating.
> From 16 poddings that joined in 2004 13 graduated, 3 retired and 0 are
> incubating.
> From 18 poddings that joined in 2005 13 graduated, 5 retired and 0 are
> incubating.
> From 20 poddings that joined in 2006 15 graduated, 5 retired and 0 are
> incubating.
> From 11 poddings that joined in 2007 7 graduated, 4 retired and 0 are
> incubating.
> From 19 poddings that joined in 2008 12 graduated, 7 retired and 0 are
> incubating.
> From 14 poddings that joined in 2009 12 graduated, 2 retired and 0 are
> incubating.
> From 22 poddings that joined in 2010 17 graduated, 5 retired and 0 are
> incubating.
> From 27 poddings that joined in 2011 23 graduated, 4 retired and 0 are
> incubating.
> From 14 poddings that joined in 2012 11 graduated, 3 retired and 0 are
> incubating.
> From 23 poddings that joined in 2013 19 graduated, 3 retired and 1 are
> incubating.
> From 19 poddings that joined in 2014 13 graduated, 3 retired and 3 are
> incubating.
> From 30 poddings that joined in 2015 20 graduated, 5 retired and 5 are
> incubating.
> From 30 poddings that joined in 2016 17 graduated, 6 retired and 7 are
> incubating.
> From 15 poddings that joined in 2017 4 graduated, 1 retired and 10 are
> incubating.
> From 14 poddings that joined in 2018 1 graduated, 1 retired and 12 are
> incubating.
> From 9 poddings that joined in 2019 0 graduated, 0 retired and 9 are
> incubating.
>
> Thanks,
> Justin
>
> 1. https://whimsy.apache.org/public/public_podlings.json
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Re: Some interesting incubator stats
Posted by Justin Mclean <ju...@classsoftware.com>.
Hi,
For a podling exit point of view:
From 1 poddings that exited in 2003 1 graduated, 0 retired.
From 10 poddings that exited in 2004 9 graduated, 1 retired.
From 12 poddings that exited in 2005 11 graduated, 1 retired.
From 11 poddings that exited in 2006 6 graduated, 5 retired.
From 24 poddings that exited in 2007 17 graduated, 7 retired.
From 9 poddings that exited in 2008 7 graduated, 2 retired.
From 10 poddings that exited in 2009 7 graduated, 3 retired.
From 14 poddings that exited in 2010 12 graduated, 2 retired.
From 11 poddings that exited in 2011 6 graduated, 5 retired.
From 40 poddings that exited in 2012 33 graduated, 7 retired.
From 21 poddings that exited in 2013 20 graduated, 1 retired.
From 19 poddings that exited in 2014 17 graduated, 2 retired.
From 18 poddings that exited in 2015 12 graduated, 6 retired.
From 14 poddings that exited in 2016 12 graduated, 2 retired.
From 25 poddings that exited in 2017 19 graduated, 6 retired.
From 18 poddings that exited in 2018 9 graduated, 9 retired.
From 11 poddings that exited in 2019 9 graduated, 2 retired.
Thanks,
Justin
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Re: Some interesting incubator stats
Posted by Justin Mclean <ju...@classsoftware.com>.
Hi,
Whimsey also provides that data as JSON [1], I put together a little python script to generate these stats:
Total podlings: 315
Total retired podlings: 61
Total graduated podlings: 207
Total current podlings: 47
From 14 poddings that joined in 2003 10 graduated, 4 retired and 0 are incubating.
From 16 poddings that joined in 2004 13 graduated, 3 retired and 0 are incubating.
From 18 poddings that joined in 2005 13 graduated, 5 retired and 0 are incubating.
From 20 poddings that joined in 2006 15 graduated, 5 retired and 0 are incubating.
From 11 poddings that joined in 2007 7 graduated, 4 retired and 0 are incubating.
From 19 poddings that joined in 2008 12 graduated, 7 retired and 0 are incubating.
From 14 poddings that joined in 2009 12 graduated, 2 retired and 0 are incubating.
From 22 poddings that joined in 2010 17 graduated, 5 retired and 0 are incubating.
From 27 poddings that joined in 2011 23 graduated, 4 retired and 0 are incubating.
From 14 poddings that joined in 2012 11 graduated, 3 retired and 0 are incubating.
From 23 poddings that joined in 2013 19 graduated, 3 retired and 1 are incubating.
From 19 poddings that joined in 2014 13 graduated, 3 retired and 3 are incubating.
From 30 poddings that joined in 2015 20 graduated, 5 retired and 5 are incubating.
From 30 poddings that joined in 2016 17 graduated, 6 retired and 7 are incubating.
From 15 poddings that joined in 2017 4 graduated, 1 retired and 10 are incubating.
From 14 poddings that joined in 2018 1 graduated, 1 retired and 12 are incubating.
From 9 poddings that joined in 2019 0 graduated, 0 retired and 9 are incubating.
Thanks,
Justin
1. https://whimsy.apache.org/public/public_podlings.json
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Re: Some interesting incubator stats
Posted by Juan Pan <pa...@apache.org>.
Interesting data help me learn more about incubator stats.
Thanks for your detailed numbers.
Juan Pan
panjuan@apache.org
Juan Pan(Trista), Apache ShardingSphere
On 11/15/2019 10:02, Justin Mclean wrote:
Hi,
Here’s some interesting incubator stats:
- Of the 315 projects that have gone through the incubator 205 have graduated, 61 have retired and 49 are currently undergoing graduation.
- That means that overall 77% of projects graduate. The ones that do not do so for a wide variety of reasons and may still exist elsewhere.
- The average time in incubation is 1.9 years
- The average time to graduate is 1.6 years
- The average time seems to be getting a little shorter. It's 1.6 years for 2015 and 1.2 years for 2016 (although this will increase as more projects from those years graduate)
- The shortest time to graduate was 58 days (way back in 2003)
- 66 projects have graduated (and another 12 retiring) in under a year
- Of the podlings that joined in 2019 so far none have graduated or retired yet
- Of the podlings that joined in 2018 1 has graduated and 1 has retired
- Of the podlings that have joined in 2017 4 have graduated and 1 has retired
- Of the podlings that joined in 2016 15 have graduated and 6 have retired
- Of the podlings that joined in 2015 20 have graduated and 5 have retired.
- The oldest project yet to graduate is from 2013 (but that will soon be 2014)
- Over the life time of the incubator there has been 1044 podling mentors[1]
- Some people mentor many projects so that’s 339 different people[1]
- One person has mentored 29 projects
- 20 people have mentored 10 or more projects [1]
- One person has been the champion for more than 10 projects
I find it amazing that the incubator have been involved with more than 300 communities and involved so many mentors.
Thanks,
Justin
1. Probably more as mentors have changed over time.
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